Xie Xie Shenzhen

I wrapped up my trip to Shenzhen, China on March 7, 2008. The city of Shenzhen, located just across the harbor from Hong Kong, represents a culmination of Hong Kong and of the not yet prosperous China. After boarding a ferry from the Hong Kong airport, I arrived in Shenzhen on a cool humid night. The immigration officials checked my passport for about 2-3 minutes, finally allowing me to enter.

Beginning the next morning, I embarked on a city tour to grasp what it had to offer. Part of the city claims to be new China, only to be taken aback by reminiscence of communism (lack of political reform). While exploring Shenzhen, a striking image that repeatedly presents itself is of officers in uniform, be it at the super market, traffic crossing, park, theaters, restaurants. Such an image could give a tourist such as myself a sense of security, while on the other hand, the paradoxical Pandora that surfaces is, are the uniformed officials really there to build a sense of security or do they reflect the image of a communist state that needs to monitor activities of its own people at all times?

It is worth noting that once a small fishing village, the transformation that Shenzhen has gone through is nothing less than remarkable. The infrastructure display in highways, buildings, bridges, the socio-economic factors, the professionalism, are all part of Shenzhen's success story. The point becomes even more important when one is reminded that all of this development was visioned by a government that is non-transparent, and the one that discourages innovation and creativity in its people. As has been the case under the government, the Chinese are still very much the type that like to 'follow orders', than to opt for creative solutions. Most of the multinational enterprises that have set up shops in Shenzhen have come to be realize this deficiency first-hand, while dealing with their newly hired cheap Chinese workforce.

The bureaucratic gridlock that plagues the government can be felt on the streets of Shenzhen. There are five people assigned to do a job that could easily be managed by one. There is someone at the front door to swipe your residence card on the machine, whereas the swiping could easily be accomplished by yourself. Given this, a question that begs for an answer is, does China have only manpower (its most abundant commodity) to offer as its contribution towards globalization, and towards attracting MNC enterprises?

Unless there is some transparency in the government, and unless the beaurocratic ways are tamed, I cannot imagine China on the same wavelength as Japan or as the US. It is unrealistic to expect China to continue to grow at 9% annual up tick on its GDP while in communism. However, credit does need to be given to the Chinese for crafting ideas such as special economic zones and tax free zones. This foresight, one of its kind, is now being adapted by other countries as well to attract MNCs. The country's accession on to the World Trade Organization (WTO) a few years ago, surprised a lot nay sayers, and while there is pessimism on China's continued progress, the country might have something up its sleeve to continue on, leaving all the pessimists behind.

Speed = Fulfill Someone else's Greed?

9:30am on a Friday morning, I am driving to work and looking forward to the weekend. The road approaches a downhill curve while I pass on a slow rider in front of me. As I make a pass, I see what appears to be a traffic cop. Alas, it can't be..not again god, please.... Too late my friend, my fate has been sealed. The cop pulls me over and asks for license and registration.

With a sorry face, I plead to the cop to not give me a ticket, but rather just let me go off with a warning. No respite. He forgets to listen and lectures me on how drivers like myself contribute to the high fatality rate on the roads. Come again? In other words, you're telling me that my driving style is fatal? And what makes you believe that ticketing me will reduce the number of fatalities on the road? Do you have any data to prove the correlation of # of tickets issued --> reduction in road fatalities? Why don't you put on some honesty and tell me that I've just contributed to your salary and that the reason you're handing me a citation is not to reduce the number of fatalities but rather to meet your budgetary requirements. Better yet, why don't you tell me that you wish for me to repeat this offense again in the future such that your budgetary requirements continue to be met.

The cops that are dispatched to patrol against speeders are most likely the low performers of the department and therefore don't get assigned to more complicated cases. To this, I ask myself, what is the point of trying to reason an argument with someone that is on the bottom of the meritocratic chain in the police department? Doing so would be analogous to asking a second grader to explain the sociological challenges in society today.

Bear or Bull?

The volatility of the US financial markets in the last few weeks has left me spinning.

After a pounding, the Dow has made a sizable comeback in the last two days. But, is this comeback a representation of long term prosperity or is it merely a momentary head above water gasp of air before plunging back into deep waters again? The thought that millions of life long savings could vanish into thin air, thanks to some unethical practices a few industries (read mortgage) have opted for seems unfair. Whatever happened to the notion of "protecting the consumer"? The phrase appears to be more analogous to theory than practice.

The credit crisis fears in the US have affected not just the US financial markets, but have strongly shaken markets around the world, as a result of US mortgages getting wrapped into bonds and securities and selling into world wide markets. Sometimes I do contemplate as to the seriousness of the mortgage crisis. After all, the US mortgage market represents only 5% of the US GDP, so as long as the factors representing other 95% of the GDP are in check, things should be OK, or so one would think.

In the mean time, the US Gov't is finalizing an economic stimulus package intended to motivate people to start spending again. In my opinion however, the package preaches exactly the opposite of the basic economic fundamental, which is to save. If so much of the economy is dependent on people spending lavishly, something has gone wrong in creating the economic parameters. In addition, the subject of whether the package stimulates the economy depends a lot on other variables such as, is the money spent on American made goods or goods imported into the US from other countries. This smells more like politicians trying to bolster their resumes than anything else.

Coming back to the stock market, and whether the market is bear or bull, well, no one probably knows. The market movement is an output of what millions of people (including speculators, retirees, savers etc) decide to do on a given day. If all of these people were to make the exact same move with their funds, then the market would be very predictable. Because of the complexity of millions of people behind millions of stock transactions, the market is anything but predictable. So, the best move would be to not fall into the hype that media lashes out on the flick of a TV remote control button, but rather to keep the money invested as long as the money is not needed to shore up immediate financial needs.

Bhutto No More!

As the world condemns Benazir Bhutto's death, Pakistan burns in flames. How ironic it is that as soon as some popular figure passes, we always tend to remember or are reminded of only the compassionate side of the person. The media's obsession with the deceased person's supporters also helps to build a positive light on the deceased. Regardless of how much the person was hated while on earth, that very person, when dead, seems to enjoy elevated love and sympathy.

the fact that Bhutto was assassinated washes off some of her questionable records in the past. Let's take for instance the situation when she was relieved from the duty of the prime minister twice because of corruption charges. During both her power grabs, her husband was continuously involved in controversial cases of having misused the state funds. None of these charges were proven in court, but as a prime minister, there are ways to get around the court conviction.

It was her foolishness for having gone into the masses to campaign for democracy and freedom, when her life itself was on questionable security. Apparently she was never promised nor provided adequate security by the military government. For someone who thinks of herself as the only person that can restore credibility and democracy in Pakistan, she undermined Pakistan's need of the hour by going into unprotected grounds in public. If she was the only remaining hope for Pakistan as she claimed, then the person to be blamed for taking away the hope for Pakistan has to be none other than Benazir Bhutto.

Airline Industry - Is it for me?

As the time to land at IIM draws near, I am already thinking about career opportunities post my MBA. One industry that has caught my attention has been the airline industry in the Asia-Pacific region.

If I as a student carry any leverage in the type of companies I want on campus for recruitment, my vote would certainly go to some of the well established as well as to the emerging airlines in the Asia Pacific region. Let's take a moment to analyze the airline industry.

1. An expansion in a regional economy has a parallel effect in the transportation industry. As businesses grow, the need for business travelers to travel grows simultaneously. Given that the larger percentage of passenger revenue for airlines comes from business travelers, rather than from leisure travelers, the market potential in the emerging markets is very strong. The acceleration of numerous private airlines in India, China, and South East Asia demonstrates this notion. In addition, numerous airport infrastructure improvement projects in India and elsewhere further endorse the notion.

2. Looking at some of our backgrounds, and how we (me and my classmates at IIM) would fit into the airline industry's human resource pool, here is what comes to mind:

• IT background - There should be numerous management opportunities available to revamp or innovate the airline's ticketing systems, baggage tracking systems, flight tracking systems.
• Finance/Accounting Background - These folks could get opportunities to manage the financial state of the airline, analyze certain mergers and acquisitions of competing airlines, develop strategy on how to stay lean in expenses by analyzing salaries given to employees, how much is spent on components/parts procurement, airline meals, fuel, airport landing and takeoff fees.
• Supply Chain / Operations background - Those of us with this background certainly could manage the overall supply chain value add by analyzing the best medium to purchase parts, entertainment systems, airline food, seatings, engines etc. In addition, these folks could also play the role of a company advocate to Boeing and Airbus in laying out the airline's business requirements.
• Middle/Senior Management background - These folks could land coveted positions in regional management positions in different regions across Asia-Pacific and abroad, where they would be managing the airline's presence locally, as well as promote the airline.
  

3. Of course, the state of the airline industry is not all cream. Stiff competition, escalating fuel prices, international security mandates and laws, crowded skies, no margin for error in safety regulations, are just a few of the challenges that this industry faces. But, that's where we would come in and develop strategies on how to stay profitable in spite of these difficulties.

IIM Bound

The absence from this corner was almost forgotten until a friend of mine reminded me today that my last post here was back in October. Quite shameful I would say.

As 2007 fades into history, lots have transpired since I last posted. I am headed to the Indian Institute of Management (IIM) Ahmedabad, to do my MBA. Studying in India's most coveted business school is an exciting proposition to look forward to. But the logistics that I have to take care of before I get there have been overwhelming to say the least. From leaving my job, to renting my house, to selling all the furnitures, car, and other assets have kept me occupied, while refraining me from really basking in the glory of having an opportunity to study in an institute some consider to be better than the ivy league lineups in the US.

As the new year dawns upon us, here is wishing all of our resolution(s) to come true.

More to come.

Bangkok Airport - Class of Thai?

Writing a few words from Bangkok Airport. Flying business class is a luxury I surely am getting comfortable with. With complementary showers to breakfast to beer to whiskey, there isn't much you won't find in the Royal lounge, made available to only business class passengers.

This is supposedly the newly constructed Suvarnabhumi Airport in Bangkok. Quite frankly, I didn't find it to be all that impressive. There was chaos with all the passengers with a 'deer in the head light' look as soon as they were trying to locate their connecting flights. With an airport just recently constructed with all the planning that goes into the construction, the new Bangkok airport fails to live up to expectations.

Till later.